📈 Analysis data investigations

We tested all 19,670 disclosed House stock buys since 2013, entering on the disclosure date you could actually trade. The median member loses to the S&P — and the Pelosi headlines aren't what they seem.

We ranked 100 House members by the median result of their disclosed trades since 2013. Only 26% beat the S&P, the leader is Rep. Mark Green (not Pelosi), and the bottom of the table loses by 45%.

The STOCK Act requires disclosure within 45 days. One in five House stock buys is filed late — one by 2,296 days — and the only penalty is a $200 fine members simply pay. The repeat offenders, ranked.

Nancy Pelosi's disclosed stock buys beat the S&P by +9.1% a year — but only +6.8% over the Nasdaq-100, and Disney, Amazon and Salesforce lost outright. The headline is leverage and tech beta, decomposed.

We tracked every disclosed House stock sale since 2013, entering at the disclosure date. The stocks they sell lag the S&P by a median −4.2% a year — a real but thin edge, and the COVID 'front-running' vanishes by 12 months.

We joined 287 House members' disclosed net worth to their trading records. Half the richest tier trade individual stocks vs 4% of the poorest — but both wealth halves lose to the S&P. Money buys activity, not alpha.

We audit everyone else's edge, so here's ours. Our insider-cluster strategy's out-of-sample alpha is +3.5% per trade — but a 44% win rate and a flat in-sample number mean it's small and within noise. Shown in full.